Russia and the international economy, Детальна інформація

An increase in internal productional costs, first of all at the expense of energy and raw materials, more expensive loans, growing transport expenses, aging production assets in extractive and processing branches, deteriorating productional situation contributed to diminishing effectiveness of export transactions. At present only export of natural gas, oil, nickel, timber and lumber are profitable. Export of oil products, ferrous and nonferrous metals, chemicals begins to bring losses. However, due to worsening financial situation of Russian enterprises and growing payment arrears exporters prefer to have hard currencies even at declining or altogether negative profitability of exports.

The most dynamic and growing market of the Russian Federation are industrialized Western countries. The largest share of Russian exports goes to Germany (9.1 percent). The USA account for 6.9 percent, Switzerland--for

5.8 percent, Italy--for 5.6 percent, Japan--for 5.5 percent, Netherlands -- for 4.9 percent, Great Britain -- for 4.7 percent and Finland--for 4 percent of Russian exports.

The pattern of Russian imports has not been changed considerably. As before, machines and equipment were ranked first and accounted for a 38 percent share of the total imports which grew by 23 percent in comparison with 1994. It was caused by a necessity to provide key branches of the national economy with modern technologies and equipment.

A decline in agriculture followed by deteriorating provision of the populace with domestic-made foodstuffs has led to an expansion of food imports. Such measures as a rise of import duty rates, introduction of excises and of value added tax, abolition of preferences concerning import tariffs, which have been taken lately, contributed to an increase in internal prices of imported goods thus creating prerequisites to restrain imports. However, stabilization of ruble somewhat compensated for the negative impact of growing import duties and excises and helped to increase imports.

In 1995 imports grew considerably, especially of such products as sunflower oil (a 232 percent increase), poultry (by 70 percent more), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (a 67 percent increase), butter (an increase by 65 percent), frozen meat (by 43 percent more).

In the nearest future dynamics and pattern of the country's foreign trade will be first of all determined by the internal economic situation, i.e. whether it shows signs of business revival or not, by changes in the structure of supply and solvent demand on the domestic market, as well as by exchange rate policies. The regulatory mechanism of the external economic activities may also change due to political factors.

In 1996 exports grew somewhat slower (at about 1--3 percent rates). It was expected that export of major fuel and energy resources would remain at the same level while such products as metals, chemicals, timber, pulp and paper would be exported in increasing quantities.

Oil and natural gas exports remained profitable because estimated rates of internal price growth prevailed.

Imports pattern changed impacted by a growth of the share of technological equipment and manufactured consumer goods. Growing imports of key foodstuffs and non-food consumer goods led to application of certain measures aimed to tighten protectionist regime in order to safeguard domestic industries in 1996 (import quotas introduced).

In 1995 Russian foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries made $

29.8 billion, increasing by 5 percent in comparison with 1994 figures, it is due, first of all, to a price rise concerning fuel and energy products

(14 -- 28 percent on the average). Exports made $ 13.5 billion, or by 9 percent less than in 1994 while imports reached $ 16.3 billion (a 21 percent increase). The share of the CIS countries in the Russian foreign trade turnover diminished by 2 percent as compared with the previous year figures and made 22 percent.

For the first time in the years of the CIS existence Russia had a negative trade balance with these countries ($ -2.8 billion) while in 1994 it had a trade surplus of $ 1.2 billion. Starting from the end of the last year imports from the CIS grew at a fast rate while exports gradually shrank.

The main reason determining the import surplus is an unbalanced, owning to a crisis situation existing in national economies, foreign trade within the CIS framework, that rendering difficulties in settlement of the

CIS countries debts, especially those due for fuel and energy resources supply. According to current data, these debts as of January 1, 1996, made

Rb 15.6 trillion, or two times more than in 1995. It is hardly justified to attribute Russian shrinking exports to neighboring countries to introduction of the "currency corridor (fluctuation band)" as their fall began as early as April while to the contrary in October some increase in export operations was observed. On the other hand, introduction of the

"currency corridor (fluctuation band)" and stabilization of ruble exchange rates enhanced effectiveness of operations of exporters from countries within the former Soviet Union on the Russian market.

As before, the fuel and energy products accounted for the bulk of exports to the CIS member countries (about 50 percent). Total volumes of oil exports diminished by 22 percent as compared with the previous year while export of oil products shrank even more considerably -- by 60 percent, the fact caused not only by payment arrears in reciprocal transactions, but by growing export prices of Russian oil which increased by 28.3 percent in comparison with the last year figures and reached $ 74.9 per metric ton (that making roughly 70 percent of prices under export contracts with countries outside the former Soviet Union). However, now some CIS countries try to reduce their dependence on Russian energy supply.

For instance, Moldavia has already signed an oil import agreement with Iran while Ukraine relies upon cooperation with countries of the Persian Gulf.

At the same time, Russian oil exports to Byelorussia grew considerably as a result of creation of the common customs area, that allowing Byelorussian oil processing enterprises to purchase oil at prices quoted on the Russian domestic market.

The pattern of Russian exports somewhat changed in 1995 as compared with 1994, for instance coal exports grew by 32 percent, iron ore exports increased twofold and export of ferrous metals also showed signs of growth.

As concerns import operations, the role of the CIS member countries remains an important one in terms of providing Russia with foodstuffs.

Thus, the share of white sugar imports from these countries reached 80 percent while their volumes increased by more than two times since the last year. There was also observed an increase in imports of grain, meat, butter. At the same time, a trend to purchase fewer consumer goods in countries within the former Soviet Union in connection to availability of cheaper similar products of quality made in the West manifests itself.

The Customs Union of Russia, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan which was established in 1995 and faces a number of objective difficulties and contradictions caused in the first turn by differences in levels of development and directions of reforms. The Intergovernmental Economic

Committee which at last started to perform its functions in 1995 still lacks supranational authority; unsettled problems of mutual payment arrears prevent activities of the Payment Union.

Prospects of foreign trade developments within the CIS cannot be estimated in simple terms. The Commonwealth's objective orientation towards integration faces grave political and economic problems. It is probable that in the beginning of next year a negative trade balance with neighboring countries will remain, in particular due to further decline in export of fuel and energy products.

On the whole, the Commonwealth's future, undoubtedly, will depend on the political situation in Russia. However, the experience of the last few years demonstrates that Russia's partners within the CIS prefer to act according to their economic interests rather than to political rhetorics.

The CIS member countries are interested in an economic cooperation with

Russia exactly because it has progressed relatively further on the way of reforms. That is why slackening pace of the reform or a complete stop of the transformation may damage trends towards integration to such extent that any political declarations on closer unity and cooperation will be overweighed.